SWIP Property Trust. Looking for opportunities in the commecrial property market? Look into the team from SWIP.
Skip to Content Skip to Main Navigation

Market views

This section of the site contains an overview of our global investment strategy and a review of recent developments within the major world markets.

The information contained in these pages has been derived from internal sources that we consider to be reasonable and appropriate. It also includes our views and expectations, which cannot be taken as fact.

Investment markets and conditions can change rapidly and as such the views expressed should not be taken as statements of fact nor should any reliance be placed on these views when making investment decisions. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.

 Global Investment Strategy - End of August 2010

Current Investment Policy -- - Neutral + ++
Asset Allocation Cash  Bonds Property,
Equities		  
Equities   Asia, Emerging Markets, <<US,
<<Japan
 Europe (ex UK)>>, UK  
Bonds   Overseas Bonds, UK Gilts, UK Investment Grade Bonds  

 Policy changes over the month, when applicable, are shown by arrows (<<, >>)

Economic growth
There have been no major changes to our inflation forecasts. The developed world’s headline rate of inflation is expected to average 1.3% this year and 1.1% in 2011. Forecasts for core prices (excluding food and energy) are basically unchanged, with projected increases of 0.7% this year and 1% in 2011. Risks to our forecasts are wider than usual and skewed to the downside in the short term, but biased to the upside in the medium term.

Interest rates
We have not made any adjustments to our interest rate forecasts. The Bank of England is expected to raise interest rates to 2% by the end of 2011, while the European Central Bank is expected to tighten policy to 2%. In the US, the Federal Reserve is still expected to start raising interest rates towards the end of 2010, with hikes to 2.5% by December 2011. Given the persistence of deflation in Japan, the Bank of Japan is forecast to keep interest rates at 0.1% until at least the fourth quarter of 2011.

Bonds
Our forecasts for ten-year government bond yields are unchanged. For US Treasuries currently yielding 2.6%, we expect a rise in yields to 4.1% by June 2011. In the UK, we forecast 4% for gilts; we think German bund yields will rise to 3.25%; and in Japan we see the market at 1.2%. In other words, we expect a simple weighted average of these government bond yields to rise by about 91 basis points over the coming year.

Equities
Our central economic case translates into a FTSE 100 level of 6,000 by the end of 2010 and the same level for the end of 2011. The tug-of-war continues between short-term positives and longer-term concerns over the strength and sustainability of global growth. The focus most recently has been the rally in government bond markets and the flattening of yield curves. Investors’ faith in equities has taken another knock, and we believe there is a moderate probability of above-average equity returns in the short run.

 

Compliance

This section of the site is for professional use only and must not be accessed by retail investors.


Important Compliance Information for Professional Advisers.
For professional use only - not to be relied upon by retail clients

Please read this page before proceeding, as it explains certain restrictions imposed by law on the distribution of this information and the countries in which our funds are authorised for sale. It is your responsibility to be aware of and to observe all applicable laws and regulations of any relevant jurisdiction.

This does not constitute an offer or solicitation to sell shares in any of the funds referred to on this site, by anyone in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation or distribution would be unlawful or in which the person making such offer or solicitation is not qualified to do so or to anyone to whom it is unlawful to make such offer or solicitation.

Applications to invest in any fund referred to on this site, must only be made on the basis of the offer document relating to the specific investment (e.g. prospectus, simplified prospectus or other applicable terms and conditions).

As a result of money laundering regulations, additional documentation for identification purposes may be required when you make your investment. Details are contained in the relevant Prospectus or other constitutional document.

If you are unsure about the meaning of any information provided please consult your financial or other professional adviser.

The information contained on this site is subject to copyright with all rights reserved. It must not be reproduced, copied or redistributed in whole or in part.

You may leave the Scottish Widows Investment Partnership Limited (SWIP) website when you access certain links on this website. In so doing, you may be proceeding to the site of an organisation that is not regulated under the UK Financial Services and Markets Act 2000. SWIP has not examined any of these websites and does not assume any responsibility for the contents of such websites nor the services, products or items offered through such websites.

SWIP shall have no liability for any data transmission errors such as data loss or damage or alteration of any kind, including, but not limited to, any direct, indirect or consequential damage, arising out of the use of the services provided herein.

On accessing the SWIP website, you are aware of the following investment risks applicable to all SWIP funds:

  • Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.
  • The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and are not guaranteed.
  • Your client may not get back the amount they invested.
  • Taxation rules and legislation may change without notice.
  • Rates of exchange may cause the value of investments to go up or down.
  • Fluctuation may be particularly marked in the case of a higher volatility fund and the value of an investment may fall suddenly and substantially.
  • For your protection, telephone calls are usually recorded.

This site is operated and issued by Scottish Widows Investment Partnership Limited, Company No. 794936. Registered Office in the United Kingdom at 33 Old Broad Street, London EC2N 1HZ. Tel: 0131 655 8500. Scottish Widows Investment Partnership Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority and is entered on their register under number 193707 (www.fsa.gov.uk).

SWIP Economic Overview

Adviser tools


Scottish Widows Investment Partnership Limited (SWIP) is registered in England and Wales, Company No. 794936. Registered Office is at 33 Old Broad Street, London EC2N 1HZ. Tel: 0131 655 8500. SWIP is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority and is entered on their register under number 193707 (www.fsa.gov.uk).