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Europe

January 2012

  • European politicians disappoint once again.
  • The European Central Bank acts to ease the strains in the financial system.
  • German business confidence rises unexpectedly.

It was another bumpy – but ultimately positive – month for European equities. As ever, the sovereign-debt crisis dominated proceedings. On 9 December, European Union leaders met for yet another grand summit aimed at saving the euro. And, as at previous gatherings, the outcome failed to inspire. The need for action couldn’t have been more pressing. Standard & Poor’s has put 15 nations on watch, including Germany – Europe’s powerhouse – and France.

True, some progress was made. A new fiscal accord was agreed, with 26 countries – the UK exercised its veto – agreeing to harmonize fiscal policies by capping government debt and deficits. These rules, however, seem designed to avert future crises – they do little to address the current one. It is also unclear how they will be enforced. Markets soon made their feelings known: yields on ten-year Italian debt climbed above 7% (a level deemed unsustainable) and equity markets tumbled.

But as the festive period approached, the European Central Bank intervened to ease the strains in the financial system. In an unprecedented move, it provided some half a trillion euros in ultra-cheap three-year loans to 523 of the region’s struggling banks. The take-up was stronger than expected, and it is hoped banks will use the funds to buy higher-yielding government bonds. All eyes then turned to Italy’s €9 billion auction of six-month debt. While that auction was seen as a success, a later sale of three- to ten-year debt was undersubscribed, highlighting the challenges that still face the eurozone’s third-largest economy.

It was a mixed bag on the economic front. German unemployment remains at a record low and the Munich-based Ifo institute's measure of business confidence unexpectedly rose in December. But data showed that manufacturing output across the wider eurozone fell for a fifth consecutive month, although the rate of decline did slow.

A month of highs and lows, then, that saw the FTSE Europe ex-UK index returning 1.1% in local-currency terms.

The information contained in this document has been derived from sources which we consider to be reasonable and appropriate. It may also include our views and expectations, which cannot be taken as fact. Investment markets can change rapidly and the views expressed should not be taken as statements of fact, nor relied upon when making investment decisions.


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